chaalwise

Reference / Poker

Expected value

Odds and maths, intermediate

Also called EV.

What a decision is worth on average, weighing each outcome by how likely it is.

A call of 10 points that wins 40 points more a quarter of the time, and loses the 10 the rest of the time, has an expected value of 0.25 × 40 − 0.75 × 10 = 2.5 points: worth making, even though it loses most of the time.

This is the idea behind judging decisions rather than results.

New to poker? Play your first hands, with a coach at every decision. Practice points only.

Try it yourself

Calling costs 4 points. If you win, you collect 16 points that were already in the pot; you win one time in four. On average, what does each call win or lose?

2 questions, a minute or two. Nothing to finish first.

Learn and practise it

Related

  • Pot oddsThe price of a call compared with what is in the pot, which tells you how often you need to win to make the call worth it.
  • Judge decisions, not resultsA good decision can turn out badly, and a bad one can get lucky. Judge by what you knew, and what you could reasonably have found out, when you decided.
  • Don't overpay to winWhen many people bid on something uncertain, the winner is often the one who overestimated it.