Judge decisions, not results
Also called Resulting, Outcome bias, Process over outcome.
A good decision can turn out badly, and a bad one can get lucky. Judge by what you knew, and what you could reasonably have found out, when you decided.
Psychologists call the mistake outcome bias: judging a decision by how it turned out. Poker makes this vivid: the right call loses some of the time. Chess has it too: a sound move can lose to an opponent who found something rare.
Results still carry information. The task is to sort luck from judgement: ask what you knew, what you could have found out, and whether the result shows your estimate was wrong.
Why it matters
If you learn from results alone, luck teaches you the wrong lessons.
Away from the game
Review a plan by asking whether it was sensible with what you knew, and could have found out, not only whether it worked.
Try it yourself
You took a chance you judged would work four times in five, and it failed. What should you do next time?
2 questions, a minute or two. Nothing to finish first.
Want more? Practise Keep a cool head.
Learn and practise it
- Lesson: Review calmly: decisions, not results
- Skill: Keep a cool head