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Reason from incomplete evidence, and update as more arrives.
Why it matters
You rarely see everything: the other side's budget, a candidate's real strengths, the cards in a hand. Good decisions start with a best guess from what you can see, and change it as each new clue comes in.
The question to ask
What does what I have just seen tell me, and how should my guess change?
At work
In a negotiation, note what the other side asks about and what they avoid; each tells you something about what they need.
In study
When you use a historical source, ask who wrote it, when, and why, and what that tells you that the text does not say outright.
Lessons
Shown and practised in poker: Acting last, Reading the board, What they could hold.
Practise it in a game, about five minutes against bots: the Rule finder lab or the Ask the panel lab.
Use it in a work case, a short story of linked decisions: The quiz night, Hiring a designer.
New to poker? Play your first hands, with a coach at every decision. Practice points only.
Practise and review
Questions from every lesson above, in mixed order. You do not need to finish a lesson first.
- Your level
- Not started
- In the games
- Not started
- Due for review
- 0
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