The quiz night

A story in four decisions, for students. It uses Don’t overpay to win, Start from the base rate, Be unpredictable and Test to disprove. Each decision follows from the one before.

You run the quiz society at your college, and this year the big quiz night is your job. The society has ₹40,000 to spend. First you need the main hall. The college lets its best Friday to whichever society bids the most towards the hall fund, in sealed bids. Whoever wins sells tickets to the same Friday crowd, and nobody knows how big it will be. You think the night is worth about ₹12,000 to whoever holds it, but you are not sure.