Weigh odds
Put numbers on uncertainty instead of going on gut feeling.
Why it matters
Rough numbers beat vague feelings. Saying 'about one in four' lets you compare options, notice when a cheap risk is worth taking, and see when a price is too high for your chances.
The question to ask
Roughly how likely is this, and what is it worth if it happens?
At work
Before a launch, estimate how likely each outcome is and what each is worth, instead of planning only for the one you hope for.
In study
When choosing courses or applications, estimate your real chances for each and spread your effort to match.
Lessons
Shown and practised in poker: Outs and odds, Worth it on average, Odds for later.
Practise it in a game, about five minutes against bots: the Which bag? lab.
Use it in a work case, a short story of linked decisions: The quiz night, Your first job.
New to poker? Play your first hands, with a coach at every decision. Practice points only.
Practise and review
Questions from every lesson above, in mixed order. You do not need to finish a lesson first.
- Your level
- Not started
- In the games
- Not started
- Due for review
- 0
No tries yet.